Kentucky Sires 2019 Part V: First Sophomores

At long last, today we get to consider some stallions who have actually undergone some kind of examination on the track. After surveying four subsequent intakes–collectively the medium for staggering investment, on what in most cases will turn out to have been the flimsiest grounds–we finally encounter the first group to have had half a chance (and still no more than that) to demonstrate whether or not they can produce a runner.

Even by this stage some are already facing an uphill struggle as victims of a wholly unreliable consensus in the sales ring. Stallions find themselves left out in the cold either by breeders anticipating the market, who have sent their mares to the next crop of unproven sires, or by the market itself. And the poor creatures then depend on a bright show from their first crop to stop the rot–even though those most vulnerable to a premature cooling are precisely those whose stock tend to need a little longer to mature.

So these are all guys at a crossroads. One or two come rushing through at full pelt; many more are walking up and down, anxiously looking at their watches. But all are under pressure of some kind or other. Those whose foals and yearlings were well received need to start coming up with the goods–albeit some of these, too, will show their real merit only with maturing stock round two turns. Those who failed to build momentum at the sales, meanwhile, desperately need an early flagbearer after books and fees have plunged steeply through their third and fourth years.

So let's take a look at how things are playing out for some of the leading members of this intake.

The laurels go to Spendthrift: home to the top performers both by prizemoney, in 'TDN Rising Stars' CROSS TRAFFIC (Unbridled's Song); and by number of winners, in GOLDENCENTS (Into Mischief).

Cross Traffic, headlined by GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Jaywalk, has achieved an off-the-charts ratio of black-type action: five out of 18 winners (from 46 starters) scoring at black-type level. Understandably, that has earned him a big hike to $25,000 from $7,500.

Though a late starter on the track himself, Cross Traffic is quickly suggesting that he can transfer the inborn running ability that enabled him to be nailed only on the line after blazing clear in the GI Met Mile on just his fourth start; and to win the

GI Whitney next time. He is out of a dual Grade I winner and if the rest of the family hardly provides the most familiar seeding, then clearly we are looking at an invigorating brand of diversity. The one caveat is that he will have to ride out a dip after covering 60 mares this year, compared with the 123 who produced this opening crop.

Jaywalk's big success came too late to spare Cross Traffic the customary dip in sales yield by his second crop of yearlings. Goldencents, in contrast, was able to maintain a virtually identical average ($47,956 for 56 sold out of 84), having had numbers on his side all year. Of 70 runners already, 28 have won through Friday–between them putting him behind only his studmate in the prizemoney table. He, in turn, has been hoisted to $20,000 from $12,500.

True, only a couple have managed black-type success and none a graded-stakes podium, but the conveyor belt is securely in gear now. After a dip to 135 mares last year, he had 190 this time round–the same number as in 2016. It's another offbeat bottom line (damsire ended up in Cyprus), but again that can bring its benefits. And everyone knows that daddy's genes nowadays command a dizzy premium at the same farm.

What augurs particularly well for Goldencents is the hardiness with which he carried his speed. You have to love a horse that can drop from a Grade I win at nine furlongs in the Santa Anita Derby and regroup, after disappointing in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, to be beaten only a head in the GI Bing Crosby H. over six panels. Back-to-back wins in the GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile speak very well for the constitution of a horse who started so brightly at two.

The contrastingly truncated career of Cross Traffic is consistent with a frequent caricature of their sire's stock. It augurs well for WILL TAKE CHARGE (Unbridled's Song), then, that he was equal to 11 starts as a 3-year-old, and was tough enough to bounce back from a nose defeat in the Breeders' Cup Classic to win the GI Clark H.

That persuasive body of work is, of course, backed up by his dam Take Charge Lady (Dehere): herself a triple Grade I winner and since responsible for Grade I winner Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy) and the dam of champion 2-year-old filly Take Charge Brandi (Giant's Causeway).

Sure enough, Will Take Charge once again topped the intake's yearling sales in 2018 after his first runners did well enough–given that their scope and profile (he's a lot of horse) commend them as likely improvers with maturity–to protect a $30,000 fee at Three Chimneys. Will Take Charge maintained another book of 144 this spring after his strong sales debut, and he has every right to consolidate on his solid start (two graded stakes performers from 15 winners and 43 starters to date) in 2019.

Will Take Charge was the only stallion able to hold off CAIRO PRINCE (Pioneerof The Nile) in the sales averages for both their first two crops of yearlings. The Airdrie bombshell caused mayhem with his market debut and, moving onto the track, did enough (19 winners from 60 starters) to maintain his $25,000 tag for 2019.

Their momentum improved as the year went on, with a first graded stakes success in September and 'TDN Rising Stars' anointed on consecutive days in the fall. If he now has less margin than allowed by his $10,000 starting fee, the fact is that his yearlings have managed a six-figure average twice already and there is bound to better to come once his sophomores get two turns. He has, moreover, maintained books consistently in the 140s.

It's an interesting page, by the way: obviously the happening sire line of the moment, but an outcross family: first dam, who also produced the Grade I-placed dam of GI Wood Memorial winner Outwork (Uncle Mo), is by Holy Bull; and the second by a son of Damascus.

A smart family was one of the drivers for 'Rising Star' VERRAZANO (More Than Ready) to produce the biggest litter of the intake, with 119 named foals conceived at $22,500. His second and third dams are Grade I winners and the page teems with graded stakes winners in between. Nonetheless Ashford have given him another small trim, to $15,000, to keep him in the game following a fall in his book (77 from 159). This despite a strong $99,567 average for his first yearlings, ranking him number three for the intake; while his second crop held solid at number four, featuring a $750,000 filly at Saratoga.

Yes, it has been a quiet enough start on the track, but of a dozen winners (from 59 starters) two have won at black-type level, while his action has also tended to be at big tracks. Certainly the overall package entitles Verrazano to a little patience. He ran 10 times as a sophomore between New Year's Day and November, winning his second Grade I in the Haskell by 9 3/4 lengths for a 116 Beyer, and was a close second at Group 1 level at Royal Ascot when switched to the European theatre at four. That confirms he has turf mileage, too, and the slip in fee makes him value given the sheer numbers from which a maturing star can emerge. Definitely way too early to be leaping to any conclusions.

Lane's End have cut NOBLE MISSION (GB) (Galileo {Ire}) to the same fee, even though he has come up with a very interesting prospect (among 13 winners from 55 starters) in Code Of Honor, a May 23 foal who blew the start before rallying into second in the GI Champagne S. After that plenty of people liked Code Of Honor for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, only for him to be scratched late, and he has just appeared as high as #4 in colleague T.D. Thornton's first Derby Dozen.

As a straw in the wind you can't fail to be intrigued that Frankel's brother should immediately have confounded expectations–evident in some ordinary dividends at the yearling sales–that he would just be a turf specialist. It doesn't help, however, that Noble Mission's next crop of runners emerge from a book of just 63 mares, the result not of any diminished interest but of an unfortunate bout of colic (covered 99 this year).

Despite a fairly low-key start, it remains nearly impossible to envisage STRONG MANDATE (Tiznow) failing to repay perseverance at $10,000. It remains very early days, after all, and the Three Chimneys sire just has too much in his favour, as a near 10-length GI Hopeful winner at two out of a Deputy Minister mare, herself one of three consecutive Grade I winners in his first three dams. Strong Mandate duly maintained a pretty solid profile at the sales, not least with a $775,000 2-year-old, and it's a very good sign that his book size climbed this spring (up to 108 from 88) for the second year running. He didn't last on the track but his page and imposing build suggest his stock will thrive with maturity.

Kept at the same $10,000 peg by WinStar is FED BIZ (Giant's Causeway). There's just something about this guy. A dozen winners to date (from 47 runners) is no more than par, but no fewer than six have immediately earned black-type. And there has been something evocative of his own sire in the competitive spirit shown by several of his maiden winners, rallying to be strongest at the wire.

Fed Biz put together a solid record on the track–only denied a Grade I by the neck of Shared Belief (Candy Ride {Arg}) and beating both Goldencents and the track record over seven furlongs at Del Mar–but is also processing genes dripping with class: he's out of a stakes-winning half-sister to a dual Group 1 winner in Europe, and to a King's Bishop winner in the U.S., as well as to the dam of Johannesburg (Hennessy); their dam in turn being a sister to the mother of Pulpit. The granddams of Scat Daddy and Tapit close up, then, and all this translated into a knockout physique that qualified Fed Biz himself as a $950,000 yearling.

Auspiciously he has in turn stamped much of his stock and duly continued to perform at the sales, notably with the top first-crop score at Fasig-Tipton's Gulfstream sale of 2-year-olds at $725,000. The owners of 169 mares kept the faith this year, actually his largest book to date. In terms of runners, we've only seen the tip of a pretty big iceberg and this might well turn out to be the worst possible moment just to back off and see how he goes.

A $10,000 fee also sits pretty well with MUCHO MACHO MAN (Macho Uno) at Adena Springs. As recently highlighted by colleague Andrew Caulfield, he was a June 15 foal who nonetheless showed something of his parents' precocity before making the podium in the Kentucky Derby and then maturing into his very tall frame to finish second and first in the Breeders' Cup Classic at four and five.

Breeders had backed right off him by his third season–his book shrinking from 99 to 35, despite a cut from his opening fee of $15,000–only to find his first crop proving a far more compelling proposition at the breeze-ups than they had been at the yearling sales last year. He duly entertained 96 partners this year, and that renewal of interest has since been vindicated by his first runners.

'TDN Rising Star' Mucho Gusto, a $625,000 breezer, became his sire's first graded stakes winner in the GIII Bob Hope S. before chasing home Improbable (City Zip) in the GI Los Alamitos Futurity; while Fortin Hill, a $575,000 Ocala graduate, was anointed a 'Rising Star' himself after a stylish Belmont debut. Mucho Macho Man will have to ride out that dip in production, and his family is certainly outcross territory, but it's promising that he should have made any kind of impact when his stock seems bound to prosper with time and distance.

Adena also have CAPO BASTONE (Street Boss) at $4,000, trading on his Grade I day in the sun when a shock winner of the King's Bishop. Three of his five starters have won, but with 14 named foals in his first crop he is going to struggle to become more than a curiosity.

The remainder of this intake in Kentucky features several who were set adrift by their first sale averages–but some are clinging on pluckily through the efforts of their first runners.

Take ATREIDES (Medaglia d'Oro) at Hill 'n' Dale. He showed wild speed and flair in a fleeting window of opportunity–soon derailed by injury–and he's out of a Grade I winner and producer. At just $6,500, he had every right to be risked in the same spirit as Maclean's Music (Distorted Humor) on the same farm.

So far, Atreides has had 10 winners from 24 starters, including two at black-type level. One was admittedly in Panama, but he is working off the same statistical program as every other stallion. The trouble is that it takes a degree of courage beyond most commercial operators to back a sire, however auspicious his first results, who was down to 19 mares this spring–despite selling a $175,000 filly in his first crop of yearlings. Regardless, nobody could be surprised if he pulled a champion out of his hat at $5,000.

Then how about MARK VALESKI (Proud Citizen)? He started out standing for peanuts in Florida, covered barely a handful of mares in 2018, and is listed as “private” back at Airdrie. But he has fired out nine winners and three stakes horses from just

15 starters–including Network Effect, a debut winner at the Spa who subsequently made the podium in both the GIII Nashua S. and GII Remsen S. Mark Valeski himself didn't really punch at a much higher weight, in his own career; and he's a big outcross, for sure, albeit with some good horses in there (second dam a half to Silver Buck). But will he ever get a real chance to show whether he can build on this unexpected foundation?

At Spendthrift, in contrast, CAN THE MAN (Into Mischief) covered no fewer than 321 mares in his first three seasons. While even a fee of $3,500 has secured him only a limited yield on his yearling sales, he entertained another 82 this year.

The theory with this guy is that the dash he showed in a brief career was supported by one of the stronger pages offered to his remarkable sire while making his name. Can The Man is out of a G1 Coronation S. runner-up by Danzig, herself a daughter of Kentucky Oaks winner and blue hen Blush With Pride (Blushing Groom). Given the way the big man at Spendthrift has upgraded his mares, these genes make Can The Man a fair bet at the odds and his dozen winners have come from only 28 starters. With numbers behind him, you could argue that now is the time to take a roll of the dice.

His studmate ITSMYLUCKYDAY (Lawyer Ron) also enjoyed brisk opening business, assembling 127 mares at $8,000. He could only muster 27 this year, after failing to make it pay with his yearlings, and is down to $3,500. Quite tempting, given the way he carried his speed (broke a Gulfstream track record) to finish second in the GI Preakness and then held his form to win the GI Woodward S. at four. He's had 13 winners from 37 starters but is obviously just hanging in there for now.

Yet another recruit to the Spendthrift factory was SHAKIN IT UP (Midnight Lute), who had 92 mates at $10,000, but his fee and book have meanwhile halved after a fairly tame start at the sales. He was quick, winner of the GI Malibu S., and is out of a daughter of none other than champion Silverbulletday (Silver Deputy). Just half a dozen winners to date (from 28 starters), but they do include a dual stakes scorer.

Auspiciously Deputy Minister is not only grandsire of Silverbulletday, but fills the parallel slot in the top half of the pedigree as the grandsire of Midnight Lute's dam Candytuft (Dehere). And Shakin It Up's second crop of yearlings did sell rather better than implied by their modest place in the table: he achieved a much higher clearance rate than most and, as we've often observed, the averages are skewed to “reward” failure in that regard. Arguably he can still turn things round at $5,000.

It's a similar story with REVOLUTIONARY (War Pass) at WinStar. He has been clipped to the same tag from $7,500 after a cool reception for his yearlings, and his book this year was down to 40 from an opening 146. But you get a pretty rare cocktail of blood for that money: his ill-fated sire was a brilliant juvenile who had very little chance to create a legacy, while Grade I-winning dam Runup The Colors (A.P. Indy) is a half-sister to the Grade I-winning dam of Mineshaft (also, of course, by A.P. Indy). Revolutionary himself ran third in the Kentucky Derby and his 15 winners to date, from just 35 starters, include a stakes winner.

Finally we'll add an outlier to this intake, as it's hard to know where else to place DADDY LONG LEGS (Scat Daddy). He has had a fairly nomadic career to this point–a Group 2 winner at two for Aidan O'Brien and then winner of a synthetic UAE Derby, but bombing out in demanding experiments on the dirt at Churchill either side. He actually covered 11 mares in Florida in 2016, but by then he had already had a first stint in Chile–the country where his late sire originally drew attention to his extraordinary potency.

That initial Chilean crop, headlined by a champion juvenile, proved so evocative of his sire's work down there that Taylor Made have brought Daddy Long Legs onto their roster at $10,000. The race to find heirs to Scat Daddy is so critical that Coolmore have catapulted champion European rookie No Nay Never straight up to a giddy €100,000 from €25,000. It'll be fascinating to see how this horse's odyssey continues from here.

CHRIS McGRATH'S VALUE PODIUM

Gold: Fed Biz $10,000, WinStar

Silver: Verrazano $15,000, Ashford

Bronze: Strong Mandate $10,000, Three Chimneys